The light at the end of the tunnel, sometimes from the sun, sometimes comes from oncoming trains. The US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose punitive tariffs on solar panel manufacturers from Taiwan and mainland China because they dumped in the US market. These tariffs should slow down the painful decline in solar panel prices – prices have fallen by half since. Some producers will suffer losses, and some will usher in a boom. In the previous 2013, the United States also imposed punitive tariffs. But Chinese manufacturers have instead exploited a loophole in the trade decision by borrowing Taiwanese producers to export to the United States. As a result, China's excess capacity continues to put pressure on prices. Then, China implemented retaliation last year to implement anti-dumping and anti-subsidy against US solar-grade silicon producers. Companies involved in the dispute will become losers: they include Taiwan and mainland China solar panel manufacturers exporting to the US, such as Yingli Green Energy, and US silicon producers who rely on Chinese solar panel customers. But solar panel makers outside of China and Taiwan will be winners. One of the winners is Norway's REC Solar, which produces solar panels in Singapore. After a few years of bleak management (which had stripped off its material production division REC Silicon), its future looks brighter. REC Solar can enter the United States, the world's third-largest PV market, as US panel installers will look for new suppliers. This year, REC Solar has signed up with three new US customers, including SolarCity. REC Solar said it will soon sign up with more companies. On the other hand, REC Silicon may suffer over time as the company also produces solar silicon products for Chinese customers in the United States. REC Solar's share of US shipments to all shipments may double from the current 7%. The company expects demand from the US market to grow at an average annual rate of 27% from 2014 to 2016. For REC Solar, the obvious risk is that the US-China trade war ends. REC Solar's share price has changed little since this year, and its performance is lagging behind the Norwegian OBX index, which reflects this concern. But it takes time to reach a truce agreement. At the same time, REC Solar's US orders have increased, and US solar panel prices are likely to stabilize – REC Solar is revitalizing its business.
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