LED expansion tide: "ceiling" of 500 billion yuan LED lighting

[Source: "High-tech LED - Research and Review" September issue reporter / Liu Qiaomei]

After experiencing a round of irrational upstream capacity expansion, the LED industry seems to have entered the “harvest period” of the downstream application market.

According to statistics from the High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the output value of China's LED industry reached 154 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while output increased by more than 50% year-on-year. It is expected that in 2012, driven by the lighting application market, the industry's output value is expected to reach 200 billion yuan, an increase of 30%.

According to the industry target mentioned in the “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Industry Development” issued by the State Council, by 2015, the market share of general lighting products will reach 20%, and the output value of LED lighting industry will reach 450 billion yuan.

Indeed, the industrial development model with Chinese characteristics has spawned a huge LED lighting market, but it also masks the industrial malpractices such as product structure adjustment, technology research and development gap, market change tolerance, blind listing, and excessive capacity expansion.

Expansion of the low price to grab the market

Once upon a time, LED is still a fragrant scent for everyone, from sapphire substrates, MO sources, epitaxial wafers, down to LED street lights, etc., companies in almost every part of the industry chain can earn a lot of money. It doesn't last long. In the past two years, there have been many influxes in the market, and the market situation of oversupply has caused many LED companies to miss the scene of the order queue. "The days of business are very sad. In the past two or three years, LEDs have gone from aristocratic products to civilian products, and instantly to the 'junk' products." A LED indoor lighting practitioner complained to reporters.

The reporter looked through the data of the third-quarter financial statements of several listed companies. "The market competition is increasingly fierce. Although the sales volume has maintained a certain growth, the decline in product prices has led to a decrease in revenue and a decline in net profit." The description is almost everywhere.

Although the relevant government departments have drawn a market-wide pie of nearly 500 billion yuan for the industry, the reality is that in the face of tens of thousands of LED lighting companies in China, the market cake is far from being as big as everyone thinks. “Everyone is rushing to eat, and the market competition is fierce.” Zhang Hongbiao, research director of GLII, said that in the first half of 2011, there were nearly 1,800 new LED indoor lighting companies in China. Among them, in the first half of this year alone, there were nearly 1,000 new companies.

As the first domestically listed MO source company, it is also the main supplier of raw materials for domestic LED epitaxial plants. In the first half of the year, Nanda Optoelectronics (300346.SZ) was unable to escape its performance. According to the company's financial report, in the first half of the year, Nanda Optoelectronics achieved operating income of 112 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.48%, and total profit of 64.386 million yuan, down 27.15% year-on-year. Nanda Optoelectronics blamed the decline in revenue on “the market price of MO source products returned to rationality. Although the sales volume increased significantly year-on-year, the decrease in sales unit price led to a decline in operating income and a decrease in gross profit margin of products”. The data shows that the company's main product, trimethylgallium (one of the main raw materials for LED epitaxial growth), fell from a high of 353,000 yuan per kilogram in the third quarter of 2011 to 21,400 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter of this year, and the price dropped nearly 40. %.

The fall in the price of upstream raw materials also confirms the overcapacity of the industrial chain and fierce market competition from another perspective. "As the mainland's subsidies to the LED upstream industry will end in 2014, the mainland LED chip factory will probably only have five in 2015." This is the recent statement of Taiwan's Jingyuan Optoelectronics Chairman Li Bingjie.

Compared with the stable supply chain system of Taiwan's LED chip factory, Li Bingjie's above statement also shows that after losing the government subsidy support, the mainland LED chip factory will stage a battle for future downstream customers. Perhaps, no one wants to be the one that has been stumbled, especially during the critical period of capacity expansion. The most convenient way to win the market is the price war. Sacrificing gross profit margin can only be a helpless move for most companies, because without market share, it means that stocks rise and depreciate sharply.

Huacan Optoelectronics (3 0 0 3 2 . SZ), which just landed in the capital market this year, recently announced its first-half financial report. The data shows that the company achieved operating income of 187,177,500 yuan, down 17.79% over the same period of last year; It was 4, 3 6 3 . 5 million, a decrease of 39.25% over the same period of the previous year; the net profit was 37.904 million yuan, a decrease of 39.40% over the same period of the previous year.

For the main reason for the decline in profits, Huacan Optoelectronics stated in the financial report that due to the intensification of market competition, the unit price of chip sales fell more than expected, while the capacity of the company's expansion was not fully formed and released during the same period, resulting in chip sales in the first half of the year. The quantity exceeded the production warehousing volume, which was also higher than the same period of last year, but the sales revenue and gross profit still declined, and the net profit was significantly lower than the same period last year.

In the past, in the field of red and yellow light chips with relatively high gross profit margin, Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102.SZ) achieved revenue of RMB 193,304,700 in the first half of this year, although it increased by 6.03% over the same period of the previous year, but realized a net profit of RMB 63,376,600. Compared with the same period of last year, the company's gross profit margin decreased by 27.47% compared with the same period of the previous year.

Forecast of the performance of listed companies in the upstream part of LED in the third quarter of 2012

    

Source: Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) to organize the relevant announcements of the above companies


Adjust the product structure to break the bottleneck

“Many companies have a single product line that is not competitive and will continue to be profitable in the future.” Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Dean of the High Industrial Research Institute, has broken through the common problems of most LED companies today. There are also a handful of companies that are beginning to seek active transformation.

Guoxing Optoelectronics is one of them. According to the company's semi-annual report, the product type has gradually been adjusted from the low-margin 3C home appliance and display application market to the relatively high-margin LED lighting market. The data shows that in the first half of this year, the production capacity of white light devices for lighting in SMD devices reached 306 million, an increase of 83.17% over the same period of last year. The output of high-power LEDs reached 3.52 million, an increase of 55.56% over the same period of last year. The market share of lighting devices was obtained. A certain degree of improvement. It is expected that the proportion of white LED device capacity will reach 20% by the end of 2012, and is expected to exceed 30% in 2013. At the same time, the company's LED lighting application product capacity continued to maintain rapid growth, the main products of light source modules, fluorescent tubes, light bars, etc. increased by 67.60%, 63.93% and 57.76% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

For chip companies that have been stuck in the low-end display and landscape lighting applications market, how to quickly realize the market grabbing the market for lighting-level applications is also urgent.

Huacan Optoelectronics and Silan Mingxin, which have been deeply involved in the LED display chip market, have gradually turned their profit growth points into the lighting market with larger market capacity at the beginning of this year. Sanan Optoelectronics, which has also worked hard for many years in the chip market. Downstream customers have begun to expand from the original landscape decoration, display and other fields to LED street lights, indoor lighting, large-size backlights and automotive lighting.

“How to control production costs and increase the added value of products is the most important thing.” Ren Zhongxiang, deputy general manager of Shandong Inspur Huaguang Optoelectronics, said that especially in the case of relatively low chip prices, companies must upgrade their products as soon as possible. And target the more competitive potential market. He revealed that at present, Inspur Huaguang still lives relatively moist with its competitive laser business.

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