Electronic components: The economy is sluggish, and various manufacturers have released new products one after another

Quotes review. Since August, Shenwan Electronic Index has risen sharply. As of September 10, 2012, the Shenwan Electronic Index rose by 14.3%. During the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%. The Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 4.3%. The electronic index has rallied significantly. The winners of Shenzhen Composite Index are 18.6 percentage points, outperforming the 14.1 percentage points of the Shanghai Composite Index. The price-earnings ratio of the electronic sector TTM is currently 36 times, and the valuation has risen, which is 47 times lower than the historical average of 10 years and 42 times below the average of 2 years. However, the valuation level in the current A-share market is still high. The first one.

We believe that the disclosure of the current sector interim report is completed, and the third quarter is not yet over. Market expectations are not yet clear. Before the cyclical sector continued to fall before QE3, resulting in small and medium-sized stocks becoming the focus of funds, the electronic index also rebounded sharply. We think this This rebound may not be sustainable. Judging from the current trend of changes in the electronics industry, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the business climate in the second half of the year, while the domestic economic growth and export growth will be declining. The performance of the sector in the third quarter is subject to greater uncertainty. Companies that continue to increase their momentum will continue to focus on the downstream consumer electronics industry.

Since September, Nokia, Apple, Amazon and many other companies have released new products. From the perspective of product performance, we think that the Nokia Lumia series has a greater improvement than the previous generation Lumia, and the sales volume is worth looking forward to. Kindle Fire enhanced version further reduced the price to 159 US dollars in the context of improved performance, the market outlook is still optimistic. Although the media generally questioned the iphone5's lack of innovation, but simply from the technical indicators, based on the price remains unchanged, iphone5 performance is still greatly improved, especially in the processor, screen size, material, camera , WIFI and headphones on the acoustics module. Iphone5 will be sold in 9 countries in the 21st, and the number of sales regions is the highest in the past. We think that the iphone sales will not be too big in 5 years.

In August, the overall economic prosperity of Taiwan's electronic sector increased by a certain margin. Of the 18 Taiwanese electronics sub-sectors we track, 13 saw a year-on-year positive growth, compared with 11 in July; there was a positive growth in 15 sectors in the chain. In July, the number of electronic panels in Taiwan increased slightly, and the peak season effect began to gradually appear. From the point of view of growth, the number of plates that increased by more than 10% year-on-year was 9 (seven in July), and only five were higher than the chain growth rate of 10% (six in July). The growth rate of the IC industry, touch screen, and LED industry has further increased, and the revenue of related companies in the Apple industry chain continued to grow in August.

Taiwan's LED sector in August continued the trend of gradual recovery in the first half of the year. The LED chips, packaging, and backlight modules showed a positive year-on-year growth for the second consecutive month in August, with growth rates of 13% and 18%, respectively. 4% still shows positive signs of rapid recovery in industrial demand. Among which, Jingdian’s revenue in August increased by 23% year-on-year, which was 9 percentage points higher than that in July and 3% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. In August, the revenue in August increased by 18% year-on-year. With an increase of 18%, the general rise in the performance of upstream chip companies shows a substantial recovery in LED demand. Investment Strategy. Judging from the current state of the industry's operations, the annual cycle has stabilized and the low point in the first quarter has passed. However, in the second quarter, the industry as a whole was flat and there was no rapid increase in terminal demand. The outlook for the traditional cyclical sub-industry is not too optimistic. . We believe that the current focus of the industry should still focus on the Apple industry chain, smart phones, tablet PCs, ultrabooks and LED lighting and other sections, the target should focus on the medium-term to maintain high-growth companies. We are optimistic about Agilent Technologies, Gem A, Sanan Optoelectronics, Crystal Optoelectronics, and we recommend focusing on Ophelia, BDO Runda and Chunxing Seiko.

Risk Warning: Terminal demand is lower than expected; risk of raw material prices fluctuates significantly; systemic risk of the lower valuation of the SME Board.