According to SIA, 2010 Q1 global semiconductor sales posted by SIA was 69.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 58% compared with 43.7 billion U.S. dollars in Q1 2009. In addition, according to IC Insight, Q1 global chip shipments in 2010 were 44.5 billion, an increase of 59% compared to 28 billion in Q1 2009.
To the surprise of the industry, semiconductor sales in Q1 in 2010 were 69.2 billion U.S. dollars. If compared with Q4 2009, the growth rate was 1.1%. This is the first time since 2004 and the best quarter since 2002. one.
Usually, Q1 is always affected by the Chinese New Year and Western New Year. It is always weak and lower than Q4. Therefore, many of the market analysts of the reverse transfer have come up with associations and have raised their forecasts for semiconductor sales in 2010.
The reason why double-day is the view of the semiconductor industry is that due to the impact of the financial crisis on Q1 2009, the entire industry has been subjected to sudden surprises. It feels like the sky is falling, and the industry is dominated by pessimistic feelings. When did you get out of the bottom. However, by the time of Q1 2010, the recovery rate of the industry was found to be faster than expected. Analytical companies such as iSuppli, Future Horizon, and IDC once again increased their growth forecast by 30% this year. In addition, iSuppli even predicts that the semiconductor industry will break through the US$300 billion mark this year and that it can continue to grow for three consecutive years. So after this Q1, the industry’s optimism is more than enough, it seems a bit dazed.
From the perspective of industry trends, the price of memory has risen by more than 200% from the lowest point of 99 cents (1GbDDR2) to 2.6 dollars. The market is in a situation where memory is in short supply, trying to raise prices again. However, PC makers propose that each PC's memory should be changed from 4G to 2G to counter it.
Another generation of industries is also booming, with capacity utilization climbing to more than 90% and 300mm almost reaching 100%. This led to the foundry's investment in semiconductors this year. If TSMC has invested US$3 billion to build the third 12-inch production line, UMC plans to invest US$1.5 billion to US$20 billion to expand its production capacity and expand the proportion of advanced manufacturing processes. In addition, GlobalFoundries has announced that it will invest $5 billion to build a 12-inch production line in New York State. The industry has entered a new round of arms race climax. It changed the past practice of investing in expanding production capacity.
Obviously, the most critical thing is that since entering Q1 this year, many companies have generally turned losses into profits and entered a long-awaited state of profitability. The following table is only partial companies' incomplete data for reference.
Where are the hidden dangers in the semiconductor industry?
Many market analysis companies have raised their growth forecast for 2010 to 30%. For analyst companies, they can be amended at any time. For example, iSuppli's forecast for semiconductors in 2010 increased by 13.8% in October 2009, revised to 21.5% in February 2010, and revised to 31% by May. For the corporate world, at least it still has a longing, not dared to speak loudly, and even doubt that it really comes?
So where are the hidden dangers of the semiconductor industry? Can be divided into two aspects, one is the industry itself, the other from the external environment.
The industry itself has the following problems: Semiconductor investment is weaker than before. Even if compared with the $15.5 billion in 2009, this year, it will increase by 77% to $27.47 billion, which is close to the level of $23.8 billion in 2008, and there is still a big gap compared with the $37.4 billion in 2007.
Therefore, it is obvious from the aspect of semiconductor equipment that this year has improved, but it is still not optimistic. The industry generally believes that the current investment is still a technology investment, that is, in order to catch up with the advanced nature of technology and investment, is not yet the so-called capacity investment, that is, in order to expand production capacity and investment.
The other reason is that the industry is getting mature and close to traditional industries, and it is implicated in the global economic environment. Although the current global economic environment has improved under the impetus of various governments' economic stimulus policies, it cannot be said that even a small number of economists have suggested that the so-called "double bottoming" may be possible this year.
According to a poll released jointly by the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), 76% of people believe that the economy is still in a recession, 81% are dissatisfied with the current economic situation, and 56% think that the United States is taking the wrong direction.
It is recognized by the world that China is one of the earliest countries in this leading recovery, but it does not dare to say that China’s economy has been out of its predicament. If the Chinese stock market falls by 16% in the past one month, the property market bubble and the CPI increase are higher than expected, also shows that the economy is uncertain.
Under such circumstances, the debt of many countries has increased, and the capital chain is tight. This will inevitably affect investment and consumer spending. Therefore, compared with the low base of last year, the semiconductor market is expected to have bright growth. However, it is also possible to increase it by 30%. People questioned. It is estimated that there will be variables in the second half of the year.
The merits and demerits of the market should be viewed as a complex and comprehensive issue. Because everyone knows in one case. Only in uncertain situations (most of the time) will the skill and wisdom be reflected. It is recognized by the industry that it is not the market that looks right. It can succeed, but it is decided that IPO, Ideal, Place and Operation are doing the right thing at the right time.
In any case, the market is the first place, that is, the number of terminal electronic products that contain semiconductors, such as mobile phones, PCs, and TVs. People miss the arrival of killer products, which have now been replaced by numerous small products such as smart phones, netbooks, power control ICs, including memory, and so on.
A separate chip market situation iced two days
For the global semiconductor industry, if we compare the results of the 2009 Q1 and the 2010 Q1, it feels like two days. In Q1 2009, I felt that a disaster had come and my heart was nowhere. I repeatedly asked “When will I walk out of the bottom� By Q1 2010, the industry seems to be a big reversal. It's a bit of a surprise. It hurts the global market analysis company. They have a place to go, but entrepreneurs are thinking calmly. Are they really coming? "?