Government subsidies call for a halt to the industry's "high fever"

In December last year, Sun Xiaojun, director of the Yangzhou Investment Promotion Bureau, said that the relevant financial subsidy policy for MOCVD could not continue indefinitely. The financial subsidy policy of Yangzhou City will come to an end in July 2011.

One stone has stirred up a thousand waves, causing a chain reaction. Local governments that have also introduced similar subsidy policies are also observing whether they need to follow up.

On March 4, insiders of the Yangzhou Municipal Finance Bureau revealed to the reporter that the subsidies for MOCVD equipment will not continue indefinitely, but the time for stopping is still under discussion.

The reporter then read through the implementation rules of the MOCVD subsidy issued by the Yangzhou Municipal Government in August 2009. It was clearly stated in the attached document that “this measure will be implemented from the date of promulgation, and the validity period is tentatively set at two years.” Said that the July 2011 deadline is already within the plan. According to the amount of the first phase of the 1.5 billion yuan subsidy fund of the Yangzhou Municipal Government, the average number of MOCVD units corresponding to the fund was about 250 units, and as of March 2011, the Yangzhou government The number of MOCVD investment agreements that have been signed is 198, and there are 52 targets.

Zhang Liansheng, deputy director of the Yangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Administrative Committee, told the media that as long as it is registered before the deadline, even if the equipment procurement plan is followed, policy benefits can still be enjoyed.

Obviously, some of the words of the relevant people of the Yangzhou government have revealed some "extraordinary meanings". An industry insider even pointed out the mystery: "Under the investment thinking, the perspective of local governments considering issues is of course different. The attitude of individual governments means that a new wave of layout may be ushered in the first half of this year. ”

The government behind the investment boom "pushing hands"

On September 20, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Finance issued five notices on the development of semiconductor lighting energy-saving industries (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"). In the notice, the current domestic semiconductor lighting (LED) industry development status pointed out some major problems to be solved, including domestic LED epitaxial materials, chips in the middle and low-end; 80% of the power LED chips, devices rely on imports; there are blind Investment, low-level construction, some local governments blindly renovate road lighting regardless of economic benefits, excessive investment in landscape lighting, leading to disorderly competition in the industry and so on.

The above problems are the key to the round of investment boom in government public lighting such as domestic street lamps in the first half of 2009.

In response to these problems, the "Opinions" introduced several policy measures, including: fiscal and taxation, development and reform, science and technology departments at all levels should promote the implementation of national enterprises that produce new energy-saving lighting products, and engage in national projects that encourage development. Imported self-use equipment and technical and accessory parts and spare parts imported with the equipment according to the contract are exempted from the preferential policies for import tariffs within the prescribed scope.

“As long as it is an industrial incentive policy issued by the national ministry, the local people's government will respond positively and act quickly. In particular, it involves policies related to subsidies and tax incentives,” a government insider told reporters.

Just before the "Opinions" was issued more than one month ago, on August 6, 2009, the "Manufacturing Rules for the Management of MOCVD Equipment Purchase Subsidy for the Production of LED Epitaxial Wafers in Yangzhou City" was officially issued. The Yangzhou Municipal Government first opened a MOCVD. The policy of 10 million yuan financial subsidies for the machine. For a time, it has drawn industry attention. The Yangzhou Municipal Government is different from other local governments in the use of tax deductions for subsidies, but in the form of cash payment, in which 40% of the machine is subsidized after the machine is in place, 30% is subsidized during the trial production period, and the final acceptance stage after mass production is provided. 30% of the last paragraph.

Just two months later, on October 20, 2009, the Jiangmen Municipal Government of Guangdong Province also issued the “Interim Preferential Measures for the Development of LED Industry in Jiangmen City to Promote High-tech Industrial Development Zones”. The amount of subsidies for MOCVD in the Measures is similar to that of Yangzhou. . However, the Jiangmen Municipal Government has additionally increased the subsidy policy for the construction area of ​​new projects.

If the investment projects in Yangzhou and Jiangmen were small trials, then the investment project signed by Xiamen Sanan Optoelectronics (600703) and Wuhu Municipal Government on January 10, 2010 can be described as the history of LED extension in China. The strongest "seismic wave". Followed by, on February 1, Wuhu City Government once again signed a total investment of 6 billion yuan in chip projects with Dehao Runda (002005). According to the plans of the two companies, the first phase of MOCVD has reached 207 units. This figure is close to the previous goal of the Yangzhou government, but the Wuhu municipal government only took less than a month.

Not only is the contracted investment project an unbeatable sensation, but the Wuhu municipal government seems to be “deliberately” different from other places in terms of policy introduction time and its terms. First of all, Wuhu City issued a number of policies on promoting the development of the LED industry (including the subsidy policy for the MOCVD project), which was approved at the 36th executive meeting of the municipal government on July 17, 2010. However, the document states that the implementation time of this policy is from January 1, 2010. The implementation time of the policies issued by the other two cities is from the date of issuance of the documents. Secondly, on the model, quantity requirements and subsidy amount of the MOCVD machine, the Wuhu government made corresponding adjustments, which increased the configuration and quantity requirements of the imported equipment and increased the amount of subsidies accordingly. Among them, the number of MOCVD units must be more than 50, which also makes many companies that dare not "was too deep in water" to be discouraged.

The reason why it is able to attract two major LED listed companies in China to invest heavily in Wuhu is undoubtedly because the one-off financial subsidy method has played a decisive role. At the same time, behind the large-capital fundraising of the two companies, the figure of Wuhu State Capital is also hidden. In addition, the Wuhu Municipal Government has given sufficient protection in terms of land supply and follow-up application orders.

Different from the high subsidy measures in Yangzhou and Wuhu, the Dalian municipal government is particularly calm and rational. Tang Zhongde, deputy director of the Dalian Economic and Information Technology Committee, told the reporter that “Dalian City has not implemented subsidies for MOCVD equipment. This year, subsidies for LED projects were introduced, mainly for the construction of inspection platforms.”

According to the data report of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), since the second half of 2009, the total amount of investment in domestic LED upstream equipment has been directly driven by the government, accounting for more than 40% of the total. From 2009 to now, the investment in MOCVD equipment completed in Yangzhou, Wuhu and Jiangmen, which only introduces preferential subsidies for equipment, has reached 630 units, accounting for 50% of the total MOCVD planning in China.

State-owned enterprises jumped into the "fire sea" halfway

The so-called "Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi", once a large loss of central enterprises, after the accumulation of energy accumulation, attacked everywhere, the enclosure became king. State-owned enterprises are the closest to the national policy decision-making level. Therefore, the investment boom of emerging industries such as new energy is also indispensable for large state-owned enterprises. At the same time, the enthusiasm of some local governments to invite central enterprises to invest in local projects has become more and more high, and even the investment in central enterprises has become a "political task."

"There was a special meeting in the city some time ago to discuss the issue of docking cooperation with central enterprises. The National Development and Reform Commission is responsible for the assistance of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission." An internal staff member of the Southern Local Government told this reporter. An official from the Anhui Development and Reform Commission said in an interview with reporters that it is mainly to ensure the growth of investment. “Seeking truth from facts, the follow-up investment of local governments has been a little bit behind. The reasons for not being able to keep up are not only related to the stricter approval of the project by the state, but also to the matching funds of the local funds. When investing, the local financial pressure will be basically solved."

On January 13, 2011, Sinoma Group, which is mainly engaged in cement and building materials, announced that it will invest 5 billion yuan to control Yangzhou Zhongke Semiconductor. According to the plan, in 2012, MOCVD will increase the number of existing 5 units to 20 Taiwan reached 50 units in 2015. Prior to this, as a company backed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences' research and development model, Zhongke Semiconductor has been in danger because of the limitations of its internal management system and development model.

Since 2010, China Science and Technology has sought strategic investors in China and raised funds for corporate development through equity financing. As one of the two central enterprises in the building materials industry, Sinoma Group did not have any accumulation in the LED field. The holding of Yangzhou Zhongke has caused many people in the industry to call "I don't understand."

A few days ago, a PE investor who had participated in the equity financing of Zhongke spoke to the journalist: "We have been working with this project since last year, and the opinions collected by all parties are relatively fair to the situation of Zhongke. Who knows Halfway to kill a 'Chengbiting Gold', which made us very surprised."

For the “half-way monk” of large central enterprises, some experts also expressed some concerns. “The development of emerging industries is ultimately driven by technological innovation. Therefore, the key to the company’s entry is to fight the technology.”

Wang Zhigang, director of the Enterprise Reform and Development Research Department of the Research Center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, told reporters that "there are many central enterprises that have joined hands with private enterprises to invest in emerging industries. On the one hand, they can fully utilize the flexible mechanisms and advanced technologies of private enterprises. Strength, on the other hand, can also share investment risks; if the investment involves localities, it will also cooperate with local governments and local state-owned enterprises. On the one hand, it can fully strive for local industrial policy concessions, on the other hand, it can also make full use of local resources. ”

Subsidy support performance growth faces capital market test

In 2010, the Chinese market's crazy investment demand for MOCVD caused the bottlenecks of the two global equipment suppliers Veeco and AIXTRON to come ahead of time, and even some were caught off guard. In the meantime, the order was delayed until 2012.

According to the 2010 Q4 financial report released by Veeco on February 7, the data showed that its 2010 Q4 MOCVD equipment sales revenue hit another quarterly high of $240 million. More than 20 manufacturers placed orders in a single season, with orders reaching $221 million.

The other big company AIXTRON Q4 revenue increased 91% year-on-year to 224.7 million euros; Q4 orders amounted to 204 million euros, an annual increase of 25%; the backlog of orders at the end of the season increased by 35% to 274.8 million euros. The amount of orders received in the whole year surged 102% to 748.3 million euros. AIXTRON also said that 2010 revenue surged 159% to 783.8 million euros;

Although Veeco and AIXTRON handed over an excellent annual report to the capital market in 2010, the main reason for the increase in performance is the explosive demand in the Chinese market. Therefore, domestic rumors may have some local government MOCVD subsidy policies in the first half of 2011. At the time of the suspension, the stock prices of the two MOCVD equipment suppliers were still strong. On the same day, the US Veeco's share price plummeted 15.57%, which was the highest among the 30 constituent stocks. Germany's AIXTRON also fell 4.18%.

Undoubtedly, China's MOCVD subsidy policy affects the peripheral nerves of AIXTRON and Veeco.

Similarly, the local government red envelopes also directly dressed up the annual financial report of the relevant domestic LED listed companies.

In 2010, various government agencies issued a total of 11.478 billion yuan of government subsidies to listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The beneficiary companies included more than 200 small and medium-sized companies, GEM and main board companies. Sanan Optoelectronics, which received the most subsidies in the whole year, received 11 subsidies in 2010 and received 728 million yuan from different governments. And this figure is four times that of Sanan Optoelectronics' total net profit of 180 million in 2009.

In fact, local government preferential policies and subsidies cannot exist for a long time, so many listed companies have uncertain risks. If the company can grow rapidly with short-term benefits and subsidies, the future profit source will be converted into “main business income”; conversely, when the preferential policy “expired” has not developed, the performance will plummet.

However, the cancellation of the preferential subsidy policy will at least make those opportunists dissatisfied. A vice president of corporate sales in a traditional industry in the Yangtze River Delta recently revealed to the journal: "The company wants to transform and prepare to develop the LED industry. It was originally intended to land in Yangzhou. But now this situation makes us very embarrassed."

Obviously, the “policy market” is still the dominant factor in China's LED industry investment.

When some investors interpret the relevant items in the Opinions issued by the NDRC, most people think that the definition is very vague. From the perspective of venture capital, in addition to understanding the spirit of the government, it is necessary to do more detailed work on the market, including analyzing the rate of return, assessing whether there is an order, and whether the market really exists.

Upstream equipment manufacturers are still optimistic about the market outlook

Wang Keyang, general manager of Veeco Greater China, believes that most of the LED upstream manufacturers have recently placed orders to buy epitaxial furnaces before the subsidy policy is officially stopped. "So we are very busy now."

However, when the reporter asked Veeco's MOCVD order forecast in the Chinese market this year, Wang Keyang said that “it is now a sensitive period and it is not convenient to disclose it”. At the same time, he calmly analyzed, “Even if the amount of MOCVD equipment purchased in China will slow down, but a large number of purchases In China, in general, the first half of the year will be very good. It will be difficult to talk about the policy in the second half of the year. The epitaxial furnace may have to be slowed down, and the business of the sapphire stove is still quite good."

In contrast, AIXTRON insiders said to the reporter in a high-profile manner, "This subsidy policy is only stopped in Yangzhou, and there is no stop elsewhere."

Consistent with the optimistic response of global MOCVD equipment manufacturers, some domestic extension manufacturers have also performed relatively calmly.

Ye Guoguang, general manager of Zhen Mingli LED chip business unit, told this reporter that Jiangmen City has not heard the sound of subsidy stoppage. The subsidy promised by the government will still be given. At the same time, Ye Guoguang also analyzed that if the local government's financial resources are large enough, the central government can't do anything, at best, it is persuasion, but under the pressure of the central government, the local government may slowly stop the subsidies.

Jiang Zhongyong, the general manager of Silan Mingxin, also performed very calmly. "According to the official documents of the Hangzhou Municipal Government, the government subsidies for 30 units of Silan Mingxin will not change. Regardless of government subsidies or not, when you have no market. At the time, those devices are meaningless."

"Investment Exchange Order" place protection resurgence

In 2009, there was a wave of “investment-for-order” in China. A group of LED application companies represented by Qinshang Optoelectronics exchanged their orders for LED streetlights in the local investment base. There are more cases like the Weifang Zhongweiguang Electronics packaged the entire city streetlight LED renovation project.

Experts in the industry pointed out that it is difficult to ensure that investment is settled by companies with independent technology and financial strength, and that companies that invest in orders can stand the test. The low-level products are ultimately To withstand the test of the market.

With the outbreak of the domestic upstream epitaxial chip investment boom that began at the end of 2009, the government's financial subsidies have emerged as unsustainable follow-up funds. "We are also very surprised. The planning period for our original subsidy fund was 2 years, but now there has been a queue of projects. The first phase of the subsidy fund has also been used up." A local NDRC staff member told reporters Said.

Therefore, “investment-for-order” has once again become the “killer” for local governments to attract investment.

In July 2010, Sanan Optoelectronics signed the “Investment Cooperation Agreement on Ground Application High-concentration Solar Power System and Component Project” with the People’s Government of Wuhu City. However, in December 2010, Sanan Optoelectronics announced the termination of this agreement. At the same time, it will build a high-concentration solar power generation system and component project on the ground with a total investment of 8 billion yuan in Huainan. Behind this, in addition to the Huai'nan city government's preferential equipment and land, Sanan also throws an order for LED street lamps with an annual 150 million yuan and a total of 450 million yuan for three years. Prior to this, Sanan chose to invest in the LED project in Wuhu, and the Wuhu Municipal Government also gave an additional 600 million LED street light orders.

A securities investor explained to reporters the mystery behind this: "As a listed company, the government's large amount of cash subsidies is a short-term behavior. At the same time, as the accounting standards of the CSRC, whether government subsidies can successfully put forward performance reports. There are uncertainties, because different accounting treatments are likely to cause the subsidies to be included in the capital reserve and not included in the annual profit and loss. On the contrary, the subsidy of the product order method can ensure the sustainability of the company's financial report."

Shortly after the announcement of the MOCVD subsidy policy is about to expire, Yang Yanzhou Party Secretary Wang Yanwen told the media that the relevant LED subsidy policy will continue and expand to downstream lighting applications. I hope to bring up the performance of the downstream supply chain, and it is expected that the lighting will be the direction of the next phase of subsidies.

At the end of last year, the Yangzhou Municipal Government once again made a heavy attack. Purchasing LED lighting produced by LED companies in Yangzhou City can enjoy up to 20% of the fund rewards as long as the total purchase price of individual projects reaches 100,000 yuan or more.

Why does government support become a "roadblock"?

In recent years, the extra-budgetary incomes such as tax revenues and land-use rights transfer fees of local governments at various levels have increased rapidly, which has enabled local governments at all levels to allocate and use more abundant funds than in the past. Under such a background, coupled with the heat of "political performance projects" and "image projects" everywhere, many local governments are often keen on "big-handed" and a large amount of government public funds are invested in for-profit construction projects.

It should be affirmed that the government's investment in these projects can indeed play a role in optimizing the economic development structure and creating employment opportunities, and is even largely irreplaceable by other funds. However, it is clear that excessive government investment behavior will also cause many drawbacks. Excessive administrative interventions in the planned economy era will even have a negative effect on the healthy development of emerging industries in the long run.

This article comes from "High-tech LED" March issue of high-tech observation column>>

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