The three major dilemmas that the traditional telecommunications industry will face in the next five years

The U.S. started a security investigation against Huawei ZTE a year ago. After several rounds of disputes, instead of settling down, instead of receiving more complaints, the US Congress initiated the second round of investigations against Huawei ZTE. In response to this situation, many observers and analysts told this newspaper that in addition to the protection policy of the United States, the huge changes that have taken place in the communications industry have caused the traditional communications companies to become more and more important. In the next five years, the old Telecom companies will have to face the impact of industry reshuffle, transformation and weight loss.

Protection barriers have a long history

Public information shows that as early as 1997 and 1994, Motorola and Cisco entered the Chinese market. Compared with the popularity of these companies in China, the expansion of Chinese communications companies in the US market is struggling. Compared with the blockade under the name of endangering security, patent wars and intellectual property disputes were the keywords previously blocked. In 2003, Cisco filed a lawsuit against Huawei, prosecuting its illegal copying of operating software. After the product sued for alleged infringement was withdrawn, after several setbacks, at the end of July 2004, Cisco abandoned the copyright lawsuit against Huawei, and the lawsuit that lasted for a year and a half ended.

This time, the United States Congress has been investigating on the basis of security for a long time. From the perspective of all parties, there are no more than two kinds: the worry about the rise of China's economy; the protection of local enterprises.

Many observers believe that in the past two to three decades, the development of the Chinese economy has made the United States very vigilant. The strategic competitive relationship has determined that it uses various excuses to prevent the expansion of Chinese companies in its territory. Chinese companies have initiated many mergers and acquisitions in the United States. This is why the case failed. Regarding this view, Wang Ningyuan, an IT industry researcher at CIC Consulting, agrees that “the United States frequently sets up market, technology, and even“ national security ”trade barriers for Chinese companies, restricting Chinese companies’ access to the US market, mainly because of its rise to China. Concerns, China ’s economy is developing at an alarming rate and the United States feels great pressure. "

In addition, the protection of local companies has also become one of the reasons for the Chinese companies' resistance in the United States. Wang Ningyuan believes that the United States far surpasses China in terms of the development status of the communications industry, such as the scale and core technology level. Although Huawei ZTE has a strong market share in the global communications equipment manufacturing industry, its technical strength still has a certain gap compared with US companies. It is not the technical strength of Huawei ZTE that really worries the United States, but the development potential of Huawei ZTE and its gradual occupation of the US market.

In an interview with reporters, Zhang Yi, CEO of AiMedia Consulting, analyzed that for various reasons, the US protection policy will not be liberalized for a long time.

The industry will present three major characteristics in the next 5 years

However, even if various protection policies are initiated, the fact that cannot be ignored is that the development of the communications industry in recent years has already determined that if the established communications companies do not transform, they will inevitably be in reality.

Zhang Yi believes that what the United States is most worried about is the impact of future mobile terminals on basic telecom operators. Earlier, there was a period of close cooperation between the telecommunications companies of the two countries, and the fundamental reason for the change from cooperation to opposition is that the communications industry environment has changed. "In the course of development, basic telecom operators' voice and living space are getting narrower and narrower, leading to major changes in other telecom companies and supporting enterprises."

Based on this industry situation, Zhang Yi believes that the communications industry will inevitably exhibit three development characteristics in the next five years: "Traditional and established communications companies will be reshuffled; and the success of transformation will determine the future industry voice; huge The organization and business will usher in a period of weight loss. "

According to Zhang Yi, the data shows that since last year, the survival environment of established telecommunications companies that provide basic telecommunications services to developed countries has changed: under the background of low global economic prosperity, the demand for equipment and services from telecommunications companies has declined, resulting in Equipment and service companies are facing a major crisis, especially since this year, and this situation is very obvious; and in the next five years, these communications giants that have dominated the world in the past one or two decades will face a dilemma of being shuffled. .

In this case, how to transform has become a problem that all parties in the industry have to consider. Comparing the actions of these companies in recent years, it can be seen that since 2011, Huawei has continued to exert efforts in smart terminals and mobile Internet, while companies such as Cisco have limited investment in this field. "If the future does not occupy a position in the mobile Internet and terminals, and operators can hardly guarantee themselves, large-scale reductions in equipment purchases and services will cause a huge impact on related companies," Zhang Yi believes. Judging from the current status of these traditional communications companies, large businesses and bloated organizations are issues that cannot be ignored. Therefore, scale reductions will likely occur on a large scale in the next five years: "Including human resources, subsidiaries, and businesses. What is the plant and land, "Zhang Yi said.

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